The weak supply and demand situation persists, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract continuing to fluctuate rangebound [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 23, 2025

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate rangebound, opening at 264,780 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday's closing price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, with a high of 265,400 yuan/mt and a low of 263,800 yuan/mt. It closed at 264,230 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.62%. Market trading remained sluggish, with open interest further shrinking to 22,000 lots. Both long and short positions remained locked in a stalemate near 264,000 yuan/mt.

​​Tight Raw Material Supply Persists​​: Smelters in Yunnan province have been affected by the sluggish tin ore imports from Myanmar (remaining below 5,000 mt for several consecutive months), with operating rates staying at a low level of around 57%. The spot supply of tin ingots is tight. However, the production resumption at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has entered its second phase, with the first batch of concentrate already shipped on May 9 and expected to arrive at ports in June. The tight raw material supply in the long term may gradually ease.

​​Weakness in Traditional Sectors​​: Solder demand in electronics, home appliances, and other sectors has been suppressed by high prices. Downstream enterprises are mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement, and spot transactions remain sluggish.

​​Short-Term (1-2 Weeks) Outlook​​: The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to fluctuate within the range of 263,000-267,000 yuan/mt. Downside support comes from low smelting operating rates due to raw material shortages and low LME inventory, while upside pressure stems from expectations of production resumptions in the DRC and Myanmar, as well as weak demand. If the transportation progress of the Bisie mine exceeds expectations or macro headwinds intensify, prices may test the support level at 257,000 yuan/mt.

​​